Election outcome leaves Palmer in charge

Clive Palmer is the new kingmaker in Australian politics.

Sounds odd, but it is highly possible Palmer will be responsible for the outcome of the Abbott Government. Palmer United Party look to have won two Sentate seats – Glenn Lazarus in Queensland and Jacqui Lambie in Tasmania – providing Palmer with ammunition to extert control over federal parliament.

With the Coalition owning 33 Senate seats and needing 39 to obtain majority and pass their bills into legislation, they need the support of the minor parties. The Australian Sports Party in WA and Australian Motorists Enthusiasts Party in Victoria are likely to have each have won a seat, as has South Australian Senator Nick Xenaphon and Bob Day from Family First.

David Leyonhjelm from the Liberal Democratic Party and Democratic Labour Party Senator John Madigan round out the eight individuals controlling the balance of power in the Senate.

It’s an asorted mix, but a closer glance reveals the overall leaning of the eight is to the right, if anything, providing the Liberals with optimism.

Day is a former Liberal Party member, while Leyonhjelm is a gun rights advocate and further right than the Liberal Party itself.

It is dubious whether Wayne Dropulich from the Australian Sports Party and Ricky Muir from the Motorists Party will provide stern opposition to Abbott. Neither have discernible political experience and their parties stand for sport and motor vehicles respectively – areas of interest perhaps unrelated to the cornerstone reforms of the Liberal Party.

Madigan’s Democratic Labour Party is opposed to the carbon tax and same-sex marriage but supports onshore processing of refugees. He is a potential wildcard.

Labor and the Greens have outlined their commitment to blocking Coalition reform on the carbon tax, paid parental leave and border protection. They are likely to own 35 seats together in the Senate (25 Labor and 10 Greens).

Xenophon has widely stated his support for serious action on climate change and is a gambling reform advocate, resulting in a possible conflict of ideologies. He probably won’t side with the Liberals on major reforms.

So, even with the support of Day, Leyonhjelm, Dropulich and Muir, the Liberals won’t have majority. They need Palmer United.

Will Clive side with the Liberals?

Palmer has conservative roots. He joined the Queensland division of the National Party in 1974 and worked in the 1980s for Joh Bjelke-Petersen, the conservative Queensland Premier. Palmer was then elected to life membership of the Liberal National Party in 1992.

In the prelude to this federal election, Palmer announced he would contest Liberal National (LNP) preselection in the electorates of Lilley and Kennedy, before pulling the pin.

He made controversial comments about the Queensland LNP Government’s leadership and demanded Deputy Premier Jeff Seeney and Treasurer Tim Nicholls be removed, leading to the suspension of his party membership on November 9 last year. Palmer then resigned party life membership on November 22.

It is this backdrop that led to the formation of the Palmer United Party in April. The relationship with Palmer and the LNP will now be put to the ultimate test.

The billionaire’s history would suggest his inclination is to side with the Liberals, particularly with respect to repealing the carbon tax. Palmer United Senator, Jacqui Lambie, supports a lower price on carbon emissions, but Palmer wants the tax gone.

The tax may go but paid parental leave looks doomed. Palmer, Madigan, Leyonhjelm, Day and Xenophon openly reject the plan, leaving the Liberals’ best bet to negotiate with the Greens, who may be unwilling to support the scheme in its current incarnation.

On border protection, Palmer wants to encourage asylum seekers to board a plane rather than a boat and determine their eligibility at the airport. ‘Turn back the boats’ may not be on Clive’s agenda.

As the owner of a simulated Jurassic Park, the Titanic II and perhaps a seat in the lower house, the colourful coal baron is poised to make a lot of noise in Canberra.